Box Office Predictions June 22-24
Been away for a few weeks and man has it been crazy at the box office since. Last week, two summer tentpoles bombed (ROCK OF AGES and THAT’S MY BOY), while PROMETHEUS has intrigued some and pissed off plenty. This weekend, Pixar’s back, Abraham Lincoln is fighting vampires, and Steve Carrell and Keira Knightly are road tripping together before the end of the world. Take your pick!
Estimate: 63.1 Million
2. MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’S MOST WANTED
Two CG-Animated releases in the top 2? Stranger things have happened.
Estimate: 16.3 Million
3. ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER
The best thing this one has going for it is timing. Still, that's not saying much. Had G.I. JOE still been around the corner, it would be in even more trouble. Ever see this trailer with a crowded audience? A lot of groans... and laughs. Perhaps its the title. Perhaps its the very JONAH HEX stigma the previews give off. A lot of things feel wrong about this movie. Vampires = overdone? Abraham Lincoln = supposed to be a joke? The movie could be wonderful, but audiences won’t give it a chance just yet.
Estimate: 15.1 Million
4. PROMETHEUS
Word of mouth has severed its legs. It’s not the movie people wanted. It’s not the movie people expected. Instead of brewing thought-provoking discussions a-la INCEPTION, it’s being torn apart on message boards. Like most of Ridley Scott’s works, only time will let it digest. Look at BLADE RUNNER: panned in its original release. Scott’s made a hundred different cuts of the movie because of that (I think). We’re living in post-Nolan world. People expect different and numbers don’t lie.
Estimate: 9.9 Million
5. ROCK OF AGES
The posters declare “nothing but a good time”. That didn’t entice people last week but musicals are sometimes an adjusted taste that take a while to catch on. Though star-studded ensembles of the late have bombed after opening weak (NEW YEARS EVE, WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING)
Estimate: 8.6 Million
6. THAT’S MY BOY
Oh boy. Adam Sandler in R-Rated territory hasn’t worked well in the past. He appeals to twelve year olds and those looking for a dumb time. Has his brand worn out or is this just a case of terrible marketing? Seriously, those trailers make it look terrible.
Estimate: 7.7 Million
7. SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD
Opening this weekend is Steve Carrell’s new movie. He’s had his share of hits, but Focus Features is choosing to open this at a modest 1400 locations. Is that enough to bring in a satisfying per-theatre average? Not really. When you go big, you go big. Carrell is big or go home. Luckily, HOPE SPRINGS is just around the corner.
Estimate: 7.5 Million
8. MARVEL’S AVENGERS
Avenging till Spiderman in a few weeks. Then two weeks later, its bye Spidey; what up Batman.
Estimate: 6.8 Million
9. MEN IN BLACK 3
Saw it this week was very surprised. It’s almost so authentically 90s in terms of aesthetic it was like being teleported back fifteen years. Felt like a movie I grew up on. That’s probably why it hasn’t clicked so well with this generation. Too bad.
Estimate: 6.4 Million
10. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
Not the MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING success of this decade just yet but it still has potential. It’s sticking around just as nicely but its not progressing the way the other one did. Let’s hope for the best. It’s grossing the same dollar, but ten years ago, those were much different dollars.
Estimate: 5.9 Million.
Posted by Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
06/21/12
- BRAVE
Estimate: 63.1 Million
2. MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’S MOST WANTED
Two CG-Animated releases in the top 2? Stranger things have happened.
Estimate: 16.3 Million
3. ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER
The best thing this one has going for it is timing. Still, that's not saying much. Had G.I. JOE still been around the corner, it would be in even more trouble. Ever see this trailer with a crowded audience? A lot of groans... and laughs. Perhaps its the title. Perhaps its the very JONAH HEX stigma the previews give off. A lot of things feel wrong about this movie. Vampires = overdone? Abraham Lincoln = supposed to be a joke? The movie could be wonderful, but audiences won’t give it a chance just yet.
Estimate: 15.1 Million
4. PROMETHEUS
Word of mouth has severed its legs. It’s not the movie people wanted. It’s not the movie people expected. Instead of brewing thought-provoking discussions a-la INCEPTION, it’s being torn apart on message boards. Like most of Ridley Scott’s works, only time will let it digest. Look at BLADE RUNNER: panned in its original release. Scott’s made a hundred different cuts of the movie because of that (I think). We’re living in post-Nolan world. People expect different and numbers don’t lie.
Estimate: 9.9 Million
5. ROCK OF AGES
The posters declare “nothing but a good time”. That didn’t entice people last week but musicals are sometimes an adjusted taste that take a while to catch on. Though star-studded ensembles of the late have bombed after opening weak (NEW YEARS EVE, WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING)
Estimate: 8.6 Million
6. THAT’S MY BOY
Oh boy. Adam Sandler in R-Rated territory hasn’t worked well in the past. He appeals to twelve year olds and those looking for a dumb time. Has his brand worn out or is this just a case of terrible marketing? Seriously, those trailers make it look terrible.
Estimate: 7.7 Million
7. SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD
Opening this weekend is Steve Carrell’s new movie. He’s had his share of hits, but Focus Features is choosing to open this at a modest 1400 locations. Is that enough to bring in a satisfying per-theatre average? Not really. When you go big, you go big. Carrell is big or go home. Luckily, HOPE SPRINGS is just around the corner.
Estimate: 7.5 Million
8. MARVEL’S AVENGERS
Avenging till Spiderman in a few weeks. Then two weeks later, its bye Spidey; what up Batman.
Estimate: 6.8 Million
9. MEN IN BLACK 3
Saw it this week was very surprised. It’s almost so authentically 90s in terms of aesthetic it was like being teleported back fifteen years. Felt like a movie I grew up on. That’s probably why it hasn’t clicked so well with this generation. Too bad.
Estimate: 6.4 Million
10. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
Not the MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING success of this decade just yet but it still has potential. It’s sticking around just as nicely but its not progressing the way the other one did. Let’s hope for the best. It’s grossing the same dollar, but ten years ago, those were much different dollars.
Estimate: 5.9 Million.
Posted by Jake McDowell
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06/21/12
Box Office Predictions May 25-28(Memorial Day Weekend)
It’s Memorial Day Long Weekend in The States, which up until about fifteen years ago was the traditional start of the summer movie season. Once upon a time it was the opening weekends for such monumental entries in the Star Wars, Indiana Jones, X-Men, Pirates, Back To The Future, and Terminator franchises. Until 1999’s THE MUMMY proved audiences were ready to flock to blockbusters a few weeks early at the beginning of May, Memorial Day Weekend was THE weekend to kick it all off. Friday sees two movies opening up on this usually packed weekend - Will Smith’s return after four years in the sci-fi/comedy MEN IN BLACK 3 and the found-footage (or not?) European-set horror flick CHERNOBYL DIARIES. MEN IN BLACK 3 will surely win the two but will it knock down AVENGERS’ reign of fury?
1. MEN IN BLACK 3
If SCREAM 4 and AMERICAN REUNION have taught us anything, audiences aren't exactly running to revisit 90s nostalgia anytime soon given those two movies box office under performances (domestically at least). MEN IN BLACK 3 has a few giant benefits - it’s an established and internationally successful franchise; it has Will Smith (though 2008’s SEVEN POUNDS drew less numbers than expected); and it has mass appeal and a PG-13 (unlike the other two’s now grown up youth audience and the hard R-ratings). MEN IN BLACK's 1997 haul of $257 Million would equal to TRANSFORMERS numbers these days. However, it has been ten years since MEN IN BLACK 2 had people groaning and avoiding which is never a good sign. Also, production issues causing this movie to be delayed and partially reshot is another red flag. However, it has the 3D dollars that have been missing in the last few weeks' releases and its certain almost everyone has seen THE AVENGERS. It won’t open as high as the other two (adjusted for inflation of course) but look for MEN IN BLACK 3 to steal the weekend thanks to a good time slot.
Estimate: $56.2 Million (Friday - Monday)
2. THE AVENGERS
Expect this to be in the top ten till at least THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. It's only a question of how high will this go. Will it beat AVATAR's domestic $760 million? Or is THE DARK KNIGHT's $533 Million more realistic. The competition is starting to pile up and come PROMETHEUS, there's a ton of other movies that are going to take away from AVENGERS. AVATAR had the benefit of an open Winter. In summer, nothing is open for long.
Estimate: $49.2 Million
3. BATTLESHIP
It tanked as expected. Audiences just aren’t that dumb. Sure, TRANSFORMERS 3 can earn a billion worldwide but that’s just because TRANSFORMERS hit at the right time - always the right time. BATTLESHIP had the ungodly task of being in THE AVENGERS’ junior frame and when you have the two playing the same theatre - what are you going to see? It all comes down to if this movie is worth today’s ticket prices. BATTLESHIP just isn’t. It has been proven. The “bleh” audience reaction to this is most likely the reason Paramount decided to delay their Hasbro summer feature G.I. JOE: RETALIATION by nine months at the last minute.
Estimate: $18.0 Million
4. THE DICTATOR
Word of mouth is sort of on par with BAD TEACHER, but that movie opened bigger and with less chaos in the box office. Still, its the first R-rated comedy of the summer and last summer was easily The Summer Of The R-Rated Comedy. It all depends on taste and THE DICTATOR is very, very politically incorrect - it’s the gimmick of the movie.
Estimate: $13.5 Million
5. CHERNOBYL DIARIES
It’s looking more like THE DARKEST HOUR than THE DEVIL INSIDE which is not good at all. Still, its a genre flick being unleashed with very little competition and mysteriously intriguing marketing campaign. Both PROJECT X and CHRONICLE were sleeper hits earlier this year proving there is still interest in this relatively cheap aesthetic of filmmaking. Unfortunately, THE DEVIL INSIDE’s word of mouth this January was astronomically terrible despite opening up to 34 times its budget. DIARIES is most likely going to see THE HILLS HAVE EYES numbers, which is fair enough.
Estimate: $12 Million
6. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING
It won’t dip as far as NEW YEARS EVE but the audience approval just isn’t there. It’s lucky to have the long weekend in its sophomore frame meaning women have an extra day off and the “why not check it out” option. Still, this was disastrous timing.
Estimate: $8.9 Million
7. DARK SHADOWS
It’s lingering in the top ten to remind us of what could have been if this opened in early October. It should have. They should pull it out and rerelease it with the different marketing style in five months. Its just not going to clear that $150 Million budget with any profit. Tragic.
Estimate: $7.8 Million
8. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
Looking more and more like MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING each weekend. It would be nice to see a movie with such heart take off as well again.
Estimate: $4.1 Million
9. THE HUNGER GAMES
You’re still here? Well, good for you HUNGER GAMES. It was announced this week its making its TWILIGHT-esque Saturday debut on DVD later this August, so its not going away any time soon.
Estimate: $3.5 Million
10. THINK LIKE A MAN
The possibility of this one topping the rank of WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING is getting closer each week. Why? This one is sticking around while the other one is dropping like a fly.
Estimate: $2.0 Millio
Sort of a difficult weekend to call. Do you see MEN IN BLACK 3 going higher or lower? What about CHERNOBYL DIARIES? Could we have another DEVIL INSIDE success or a SILENT HOUSE failure? But most importantly, what do YOU plan on seeing?
Posted by Jake McDowell
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05/25/12
1. MEN IN BLACK 3
If SCREAM 4 and AMERICAN REUNION have taught us anything, audiences aren't exactly running to revisit 90s nostalgia anytime soon given those two movies box office under performances (domestically at least). MEN IN BLACK 3 has a few giant benefits - it’s an established and internationally successful franchise; it has Will Smith (though 2008’s SEVEN POUNDS drew less numbers than expected); and it has mass appeal and a PG-13 (unlike the other two’s now grown up youth audience and the hard R-ratings). MEN IN BLACK's 1997 haul of $257 Million would equal to TRANSFORMERS numbers these days. However, it has been ten years since MEN IN BLACK 2 had people groaning and avoiding which is never a good sign. Also, production issues causing this movie to be delayed and partially reshot is another red flag. However, it has the 3D dollars that have been missing in the last few weeks' releases and its certain almost everyone has seen THE AVENGERS. It won’t open as high as the other two (adjusted for inflation of course) but look for MEN IN BLACK 3 to steal the weekend thanks to a good time slot.
Estimate: $56.2 Million (Friday - Monday)
2. THE AVENGERS
Expect this to be in the top ten till at least THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. It's only a question of how high will this go. Will it beat AVATAR's domestic $760 million? Or is THE DARK KNIGHT's $533 Million more realistic. The competition is starting to pile up and come PROMETHEUS, there's a ton of other movies that are going to take away from AVENGERS. AVATAR had the benefit of an open Winter. In summer, nothing is open for long.
Estimate: $49.2 Million
3. BATTLESHIP
It tanked as expected. Audiences just aren’t that dumb. Sure, TRANSFORMERS 3 can earn a billion worldwide but that’s just because TRANSFORMERS hit at the right time - always the right time. BATTLESHIP had the ungodly task of being in THE AVENGERS’ junior frame and when you have the two playing the same theatre - what are you going to see? It all comes down to if this movie is worth today’s ticket prices. BATTLESHIP just isn’t. It has been proven. The “bleh” audience reaction to this is most likely the reason Paramount decided to delay their Hasbro summer feature G.I. JOE: RETALIATION by nine months at the last minute.
Estimate: $18.0 Million
4. THE DICTATOR
Word of mouth is sort of on par with BAD TEACHER, but that movie opened bigger and with less chaos in the box office. Still, its the first R-rated comedy of the summer and last summer was easily The Summer Of The R-Rated Comedy. It all depends on taste and THE DICTATOR is very, very politically incorrect - it’s the gimmick of the movie.
Estimate: $13.5 Million
5. CHERNOBYL DIARIES
It’s looking more like THE DARKEST HOUR than THE DEVIL INSIDE which is not good at all. Still, its a genre flick being unleashed with very little competition and mysteriously intriguing marketing campaign. Both PROJECT X and CHRONICLE were sleeper hits earlier this year proving there is still interest in this relatively cheap aesthetic of filmmaking. Unfortunately, THE DEVIL INSIDE’s word of mouth this January was astronomically terrible despite opening up to 34 times its budget. DIARIES is most likely going to see THE HILLS HAVE EYES numbers, which is fair enough.
Estimate: $12 Million
6. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING
It won’t dip as far as NEW YEARS EVE but the audience approval just isn’t there. It’s lucky to have the long weekend in its sophomore frame meaning women have an extra day off and the “why not check it out” option. Still, this was disastrous timing.
Estimate: $8.9 Million
7. DARK SHADOWS
It’s lingering in the top ten to remind us of what could have been if this opened in early October. It should have. They should pull it out and rerelease it with the different marketing style in five months. Its just not going to clear that $150 Million budget with any profit. Tragic.
Estimate: $7.8 Million
8. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
Looking more and more like MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING each weekend. It would be nice to see a movie with such heart take off as well again.
Estimate: $4.1 Million
9. THE HUNGER GAMES
You’re still here? Well, good for you HUNGER GAMES. It was announced this week its making its TWILIGHT-esque Saturday debut on DVD later this August, so its not going away any time soon.
Estimate: $3.5 Million
10. THINK LIKE A MAN
The possibility of this one topping the rank of WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING is getting closer each week. Why? This one is sticking around while the other one is dropping like a fly.
Estimate: $2.0 Millio
Sort of a difficult weekend to call. Do you see MEN IN BLACK 3 going higher or lower? What about CHERNOBYL DIARIES? Could we have another DEVIL INSIDE success or a SILENT HOUSE failure? But most importantly, what do YOU plan on seeing?
Posted by Jake McDowell
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05/25/12
Box Office Predictions May 18-20
Three summer movies open this weekend, each of them serving a different audience. The action-spectacle, based on Hasbro product BATTLESHIP; the ensemble pregnancy flick, based on the best selling self help book WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING; and the controversial and irreverent scripted feature based on comedian Sasha Baron Coen’s satiric alter ego, THE DICTATOR. Do any of these stand a chance against the biggest superhero movie of the decade (so far)?
1. MARVEL’S THE AVENGERS
It’s crossed the billion-dollar worldwide mark this week which means its done in fourteen days what some summer movies can’t do half of in their entire run. This weekend at number one is looking more and more like a sure thing. It’s the only sure thing out there. It’s the movie people are talking and raving about and if they’re not - they’re certainly discussing it. Really, where is the competition? MEN IN BLACK 3D opens next weekend and it will top AVENGERS but again for this weekend, it’s stealing number one by a landslide.
2. BATTLESHIP
The last summer movie about a ship was 2006’s POSEIDON which opened at #2 to a disappointing $19.2 Million. BATTLESHIP is just deja vu all over again. It’ll bring in more money than POSEIDON during the opening weekend but thanks to some unkind reviews and a really disinterested word of mouth on Flixster and Twitter, it will most likely end up with similar dollars towards the end. It’s easily this years answer to TRANSFORMERS - a loud, action packed Hasbro-product brought to life. Only this is opening without the built in fandom.
Estimate: $28.1 Million
3. THE DICTATOR
Nothing could stop Sasha Baron Coen’s BORAT from becoming the obnoxiously over-quoted pop culture icon he was in 2006. It scored big bucks and made him a name. 2009 saw his return to unscripted in character pseudo-documentaries with BRUNO. The switch from Fox to Universal showed - BRUNO was obviously tinkered and tailored by the studio in a way that only showed how brave BORAT was compared to BRUNO. Still, BRUNO had its shocking moments that some might remember. THE DICTATOR is a scripted effort from Coen but still relies on irreverent political, cultural, racial, sexist, and homophobic humour which has proven quite funny when its being self-aware. THE DICTATOR looks poised to score about half of BRUNO’s dollars - easily. Unless this is a runaway hit, opening weekend is going to be front loaded to death.
Estimate: $18.5 Million
4. DARK SHADOWS
This should have been released in October. It would have owned the Halloween season. Tim Burton return to gothic gloom and Johnny Depp as a vampire? You can’t get more Halloween than that. Shame too, the movie is actually kind of good.
Estimate: $14.3 Million
5. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING
THINK LIKE A MAN exploded earlier this season which would have one believe that another chick flick ensemble serving a larger demographic would be on the road to bank even bigger bucks. Unfortunately, this one looks terrible all around. The trailers have been weak and the lack of advertisement says the movie is nowhere near as crowd-pleasing as HE’S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU. Cameron Diaz and Jennifer Lopez have both had their share of hundred-million dollar hits and embarrassing flops so its up in the air if they are going to bring in a crowd this time around - together. As for the men in the movie - is there even a reliable male draw? Will the targeted women show up for GLEE’s Matthew Morrison or Chris Rock? It’s highly doubtful. Busy and expecting moms could sell some tickets. Anyone outside of that demo is just looking for something to do. What to expect from WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING? A lot of dismissiveness from critics and audiences alike.
Estimate: $14.1 Million
6. THINK LIKE A MAN
I kind of wish this ends up higher than WTEWYE but that one won’t happen. At least its going to last longer in its run. That’s pretty much a guarantee.
Estimate: $4.3 Million
7. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
A movie that should stick around all summer. Could be 2012’s answer to MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING but that type of labeling can’t even be predicted till August. It’s earned a jaw dropping $82 Million worldwide so far and word of mouth has been nice so far. That’s all its audience needs.
Estimate: $4.0 Million
8. THE HUNGER GAMES
I still haven’t seen it. It’s sort of sticking around theaters tempting people like me.
Estimate: $2.5 Million
9. THE LUCKY ONE
This shouldn’t be in the top ten. It got lucky not opening up against anything like it.
Estimate: $2.0 Million
10. THE PIRATES! A BAND OF MISFITS
The luck has bled over to this one. Until BRAVE...
Estimate: <$1.5 Million
AVENGERS‘ guaranteed success has made the only interesting things about May’s box office be about how much its going to continue earning and how much it will crush its competition Hulk-style. June should pick up strongly with SNOW WHITE & THE HUNTSMAN, PROMETHEUS, and BRAVE. Looks like it could be the summer of strong female heroines. Thank you HUNGER GAMES (and last year’s THE HELP/BRIDESMAIDS) for leading this trend!
Posted By Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
05/18/12
1. MARVEL’S THE AVENGERS
It’s crossed the billion-dollar worldwide mark this week which means its done in fourteen days what some summer movies can’t do half of in their entire run. This weekend at number one is looking more and more like a sure thing. It’s the only sure thing out there. It’s the movie people are talking and raving about and if they’re not - they’re certainly discussing it. Really, where is the competition? MEN IN BLACK 3D opens next weekend and it will top AVENGERS but again for this weekend, it’s stealing number one by a landslide.
2. BATTLESHIP
The last summer movie about a ship was 2006’s POSEIDON which opened at #2 to a disappointing $19.2 Million. BATTLESHIP is just deja vu all over again. It’ll bring in more money than POSEIDON during the opening weekend but thanks to some unkind reviews and a really disinterested word of mouth on Flixster and Twitter, it will most likely end up with similar dollars towards the end. It’s easily this years answer to TRANSFORMERS - a loud, action packed Hasbro-product brought to life. Only this is opening without the built in fandom.
Estimate: $28.1 Million
3. THE DICTATOR
Nothing could stop Sasha Baron Coen’s BORAT from becoming the obnoxiously over-quoted pop culture icon he was in 2006. It scored big bucks and made him a name. 2009 saw his return to unscripted in character pseudo-documentaries with BRUNO. The switch from Fox to Universal showed - BRUNO was obviously tinkered and tailored by the studio in a way that only showed how brave BORAT was compared to BRUNO. Still, BRUNO had its shocking moments that some might remember. THE DICTATOR is a scripted effort from Coen but still relies on irreverent political, cultural, racial, sexist, and homophobic humour which has proven quite funny when its being self-aware. THE DICTATOR looks poised to score about half of BRUNO’s dollars - easily. Unless this is a runaway hit, opening weekend is going to be front loaded to death.
Estimate: $18.5 Million
4. DARK SHADOWS
This should have been released in October. It would have owned the Halloween season. Tim Burton return to gothic gloom and Johnny Depp as a vampire? You can’t get more Halloween than that. Shame too, the movie is actually kind of good.
Estimate: $14.3 Million
5. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING
THINK LIKE A MAN exploded earlier this season which would have one believe that another chick flick ensemble serving a larger demographic would be on the road to bank even bigger bucks. Unfortunately, this one looks terrible all around. The trailers have been weak and the lack of advertisement says the movie is nowhere near as crowd-pleasing as HE’S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU. Cameron Diaz and Jennifer Lopez have both had their share of hundred-million dollar hits and embarrassing flops so its up in the air if they are going to bring in a crowd this time around - together. As for the men in the movie - is there even a reliable male draw? Will the targeted women show up for GLEE’s Matthew Morrison or Chris Rock? It’s highly doubtful. Busy and expecting moms could sell some tickets. Anyone outside of that demo is just looking for something to do. What to expect from WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING? A lot of dismissiveness from critics and audiences alike.
Estimate: $14.1 Million
6. THINK LIKE A MAN
I kind of wish this ends up higher than WTEWYE but that one won’t happen. At least its going to last longer in its run. That’s pretty much a guarantee.
Estimate: $4.3 Million
7. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
A movie that should stick around all summer. Could be 2012’s answer to MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING but that type of labeling can’t even be predicted till August. It’s earned a jaw dropping $82 Million worldwide so far and word of mouth has been nice so far. That’s all its audience needs.
Estimate: $4.0 Million
8. THE HUNGER GAMES
I still haven’t seen it. It’s sort of sticking around theaters tempting people like me.
Estimate: $2.5 Million
9. THE LUCKY ONE
This shouldn’t be in the top ten. It got lucky not opening up against anything like it.
Estimate: $2.0 Million
10. THE PIRATES! A BAND OF MISFITS
The luck has bled over to this one. Until BRAVE...
Estimate: <$1.5 Million
AVENGERS‘ guaranteed success has made the only interesting things about May’s box office be about how much its going to continue earning and how much it will crush its competition Hulk-style. June should pick up strongly with SNOW WHITE & THE HUNTSMAN, PROMETHEUS, and BRAVE. Looks like it could be the summer of strong female heroines. Thank you HUNGER GAMES (and last year’s THE HELP/BRIDESMAIDS) for leading this trend!
Posted By Jake McDowell
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05/18/12
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: May 11 - 13
Blowing away even the most generous of box office predictions last weekend, MARVEL’S AVENGERS over performed like nothing before - besting last year’s recorder setter HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS PART 2 by almost $40 Million. While AVENGERS will have no problem taking the top spot this weekend it could also set a new record for the biggest drop from first to second weekend.
1. MARVEL’S AVENGERS
You don’t open at $207.1 Million dollars and plummet to #2 in your sophomore frame. It’s just not possible and there isn’t anything opening this weekend to make it happen. AVENGERS has pretty much until MEN IN BLACK 3 later this month to rule the top spot. Word of mouth has been nothing but excellent, with the only notable retaliation being displaced fanboys, the few unimpressed, and the ones who love being in the minority opinion. Though this number screams nothing but front-loaded, all this AVENGERS talk this week could save it from the fate that was IRON MAN 2’s massive opening and head scratching second week. How much will it drop? Its tough to call. Having a second weekend in the hundred million cume is unprecedented and this movie is already making miracles left, right, and center.
Estimate: $87 Million
2. DARK SHADOWS
The last Johnny Depp/Tim Burton romp ALICE IN WONDERLAND broke March records, opening with $116 Million. This one is far more in line with SWEENEY TODD, only its rated PG-13 and its not opening during Oscar Season. Vampire movies rarely do well outside of the TWILIGHT, BLADE, and UNDERWORLD franchises (even last summer’s tonally-similar FRIGHT NIGHT tanked) Still, there isn’t much of a competition and the marketing has peaked interest. It’s opening in 3,700 screens and not in 3D, which doesn’t say much but its readily available as an alternative to sold out screenings of AVENGERS.
Estimate: $37 Million
3. THINK LIKE A MAN
This one just keeps on going. The underdog movie of pre-summer? Watch out Tyler Perry, your impending summer sleeper might just be overshadowed.
Estimate: $7 Million
4. THE FIVE-YEAR ENGAGEMENT
I want to believe this will hold on for a few more weeks, at least until WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING comes out. I don’t know why this hasn’t done better, I don’t. It’s a funny, sweet little movie that does, yes, run longer than most, and yes, again features Jason Segel - but it’s so much better than the Nicholas Sparks dreck that still haunts the top five.
Estimate: $5 Million
5. THE LUCKY ONE
The less said about this title the better. It’s only doing this well because THE VOW opened the doors for this years sappy rom-dram’s.
Estimate: $5 Million
6. THE HUNGER GAMES
If 2012 proves to be the year of overnight, unexpected, and (relatively) lower-budgeted blockbuster miracles, perhaps the world might not end in December.
Estimate: $5 Million
7. SAFE
There’s always a Jason Statham backup in case things are sold out. Am I right? This is just practice until the big game that is THE EXPENDABLES 2 later this summer. People are probably saving their R-rated action star dollars for that one.
Estimate: $4 Million
8. THE PIRATES! A BAND OF MISFITS
Because there isn’t anything else out there for children.
Estimate $4 Million
9. CHIMPANZEE
Except for this one. And neither of them are Pixar. Or Pixar-esque.
Estimate: $2 Million
10. THE RAVEN
I could be way off on this one. Much like John Cusak’s choice of roles these days. Didn’t turn out to be the 1408 hit the studio was hoping for. Better luck on Netflix.
Estimate: <$1 Million
From spots 4-8, it will be tight! Could THE RAVEN drop off and CABIN IN THE WOODS stick around? It could happen! 21 JUMP STREET reappearing? Not off limits. What will you be seeing this weekend?
Posted by Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
05/10/12
1. MARVEL’S AVENGERS
You don’t open at $207.1 Million dollars and plummet to #2 in your sophomore frame. It’s just not possible and there isn’t anything opening this weekend to make it happen. AVENGERS has pretty much until MEN IN BLACK 3 later this month to rule the top spot. Word of mouth has been nothing but excellent, with the only notable retaliation being displaced fanboys, the few unimpressed, and the ones who love being in the minority opinion. Though this number screams nothing but front-loaded, all this AVENGERS talk this week could save it from the fate that was IRON MAN 2’s massive opening and head scratching second week. How much will it drop? Its tough to call. Having a second weekend in the hundred million cume is unprecedented and this movie is already making miracles left, right, and center.
Estimate: $87 Million
2. DARK SHADOWS
The last Johnny Depp/Tim Burton romp ALICE IN WONDERLAND broke March records, opening with $116 Million. This one is far more in line with SWEENEY TODD, only its rated PG-13 and its not opening during Oscar Season. Vampire movies rarely do well outside of the TWILIGHT, BLADE, and UNDERWORLD franchises (even last summer’s tonally-similar FRIGHT NIGHT tanked) Still, there isn’t much of a competition and the marketing has peaked interest. It’s opening in 3,700 screens and not in 3D, which doesn’t say much but its readily available as an alternative to sold out screenings of AVENGERS.
Estimate: $37 Million
3. THINK LIKE A MAN
This one just keeps on going. The underdog movie of pre-summer? Watch out Tyler Perry, your impending summer sleeper might just be overshadowed.
Estimate: $7 Million
4. THE FIVE-YEAR ENGAGEMENT
I want to believe this will hold on for a few more weeks, at least until WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING comes out. I don’t know why this hasn’t done better, I don’t. It’s a funny, sweet little movie that does, yes, run longer than most, and yes, again features Jason Segel - but it’s so much better than the Nicholas Sparks dreck that still haunts the top five.
Estimate: $5 Million
5. THE LUCKY ONE
The less said about this title the better. It’s only doing this well because THE VOW opened the doors for this years sappy rom-dram’s.
Estimate: $5 Million
6. THE HUNGER GAMES
If 2012 proves to be the year of overnight, unexpected, and (relatively) lower-budgeted blockbuster miracles, perhaps the world might not end in December.
Estimate: $5 Million
7. SAFE
There’s always a Jason Statham backup in case things are sold out. Am I right? This is just practice until the big game that is THE EXPENDABLES 2 later this summer. People are probably saving their R-rated action star dollars for that one.
Estimate: $4 Million
8. THE PIRATES! A BAND OF MISFITS
Because there isn’t anything else out there for children.
Estimate $4 Million
9. CHIMPANZEE
Except for this one. And neither of them are Pixar. Or Pixar-esque.
Estimate: $2 Million
10. THE RAVEN
I could be way off on this one. Much like John Cusak’s choice of roles these days. Didn’t turn out to be the 1408 hit the studio was hoping for. Better luck on Netflix.
Estimate: <$1 Million
From spots 4-8, it will be tight! Could THE RAVEN drop off and CABIN IN THE WOODS stick around? It could happen! 21 JUMP STREET reappearing? Not off limits. What will you be seeing this weekend?
Posted by Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
05/10/12
Box Office Predictions!
We have a new contributor to our site! His name is Jake McDowell. As filmmaker and student Jake knows what the industry is all about so we are very honored to have him post something that he has a lot of knowledge on! Here are Jake's predictions for this weekend's Box Office:
1. MARVEL’S THE AVENGERS
It’s officially “summer movie season” which means a new blockbuster each week (more often than now, two or more actually). MARVEL has had big success in the past on this weekend. IRON MAN opened to an unexpected $98.1 Million back in 2008 and two years later its sequel garnered a staggering $126.2 Million. Last year’s THOR grossed around $68.5 so the audience is there and ready. None of that need apply to THE AVENGERS, which is the assembly of every big Marvel character since 08 and it’s going to be huge. It’s grossed close to $300 Million overseas already and word of mouth is more incredible than IRON MAN. With THOR and CAPTAIN AMERICA still fresh in the minds of movie-goers thanks to their successful origin stories last summer, it’s only becoming draw after draw. Expect AVENGERS to open huge.
Estimate: $145 Million
2. THINK LIKE A MAN
It stole the top spot two weekends in a row with a lower theatre count than any other big release and without any high profile stars. The Black audience is always underserved and with the interesting decline in this years Tyler Perry production, this appears to be the one they’ve been waiting for. Its great knowing a $12 Million production can earn close to $70 Million in two weeks, serving a specific demographic, and without the use of mass-marketing. Reason #85 why these big budget star powered comedies have been tanking in the last few years.
Estimate: $10 Million
3. THE HUNGER GAMES
Anyone who is seeing HUNGER GAMES again is apart of two groups. The sold-out bleed and the one’s who have just finished the book. Still, its all profits from here on out as this overnight phenomenon continues to blow minds in its success.
Estimate: $7 Million.
4. THE LUCKY ONE
It doesn’t have the competition out there, then again Nicholas Sparks adaptations usually try to aim for that. Still, selling Zac Efron as a marine with a cliched-to-the-wall romance backdrop can only draw in so many. It’s proof now he’s no Channing Tatum.
Estimate: $6 Million
5. THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
Again, another title that doesn’t have much competition. Those who are going to see it will in the next couple of weeks. Overseas its rocking the boat. Domestically, not so much.Estimate: $6 Million
6. THE FIVE YEAR ENGAGEMENT
Apatow will have to deal without having a breakout comedy hit this year, which is fine since 2010’s GET HIM TO THE GREEK bleed just as bad in its decline. Bad timing? Bad marketing? Romantic comedies comes every month. Perhaps no one was ready for it just yet.Estimate: $5 Million
7. SAFE
The “what else is there?” consideration. Estimate: $4 Million
8. THE RAVEN
The “we need something spooky” go-to option. Word of mouth hasn’t been kind or much at all. Curiosity will bring in the dollars this weekend.
Estimate: $3 Million
9. 21 JUMP STREET
Eight weeks in the top ten. Sony is glad they took another chance on Jonah Hill.
Estimate: $2.5 Million
10. THE CABIN IN THE WOODS
This could go either way. A steep decline or a sudden interest. Remember, its Joss Weadon’s week. Like most of his work, this weekend will certainly surprise.
Estimate: $2 Million
Posted by Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
05/03/12
1. MARVEL’S THE AVENGERS
It’s officially “summer movie season” which means a new blockbuster each week (more often than now, two or more actually). MARVEL has had big success in the past on this weekend. IRON MAN opened to an unexpected $98.1 Million back in 2008 and two years later its sequel garnered a staggering $126.2 Million. Last year’s THOR grossed around $68.5 so the audience is there and ready. None of that need apply to THE AVENGERS, which is the assembly of every big Marvel character since 08 and it’s going to be huge. It’s grossed close to $300 Million overseas already and word of mouth is more incredible than IRON MAN. With THOR and CAPTAIN AMERICA still fresh in the minds of movie-goers thanks to their successful origin stories last summer, it’s only becoming draw after draw. Expect AVENGERS to open huge.
Estimate: $145 Million
2. THINK LIKE A MAN
It stole the top spot two weekends in a row with a lower theatre count than any other big release and without any high profile stars. The Black audience is always underserved and with the interesting decline in this years Tyler Perry production, this appears to be the one they’ve been waiting for. Its great knowing a $12 Million production can earn close to $70 Million in two weeks, serving a specific demographic, and without the use of mass-marketing. Reason #85 why these big budget star powered comedies have been tanking in the last few years.
Estimate: $10 Million
3. THE HUNGER GAMES
Anyone who is seeing HUNGER GAMES again is apart of two groups. The sold-out bleed and the one’s who have just finished the book. Still, its all profits from here on out as this overnight phenomenon continues to blow minds in its success.
Estimate: $7 Million.
4. THE LUCKY ONE
It doesn’t have the competition out there, then again Nicholas Sparks adaptations usually try to aim for that. Still, selling Zac Efron as a marine with a cliched-to-the-wall romance backdrop can only draw in so many. It’s proof now he’s no Channing Tatum.
Estimate: $6 Million
5. THE PIRATES! BAND OF MISFITS
Again, another title that doesn’t have much competition. Those who are going to see it will in the next couple of weeks. Overseas its rocking the boat. Domestically, not so much.Estimate: $6 Million
6. THE FIVE YEAR ENGAGEMENT
Apatow will have to deal without having a breakout comedy hit this year, which is fine since 2010’s GET HIM TO THE GREEK bleed just as bad in its decline. Bad timing? Bad marketing? Romantic comedies comes every month. Perhaps no one was ready for it just yet.Estimate: $5 Million
7. SAFE
The “what else is there?” consideration. Estimate: $4 Million
8. THE RAVEN
The “we need something spooky” go-to option. Word of mouth hasn’t been kind or much at all. Curiosity will bring in the dollars this weekend.
Estimate: $3 Million
9. 21 JUMP STREET
Eight weeks in the top ten. Sony is glad they took another chance on Jonah Hill.
Estimate: $2.5 Million
10. THE CABIN IN THE WOODS
This could go either way. A steep decline or a sudden interest. Remember, its Joss Weadon’s week. Like most of his work, this weekend will certainly surprise.
Estimate: $2 Million
Posted by Jake McDowell
Comment away on the Blog page
05/03/12